Betting on the Weather
Apart from an attendee dying, rain is perhaps the worst thing that can happen to a festival,” said Christian Phillips, contingency underwriter at Beazley. “An angry few hours from Mother Nature can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, dampening profits even for sold-out festivals and negatively affecting on-the-ground consumer spending.”
Yet according the insurance industry, many event and hospitality companies continue to find themselves inadequately covered against losses that could arise from adverse weather, or are unaware of the insurance coverage options available to them.
“A protection gap exists on weather coverage for events companies,” said Tanguy Touffut, global head of parametric solutions at AXA, who believes those buying coverage are in the minority.
“However, increasing weather anomalies as a consequence of climate change, as well as the emergence of innovative insurance solutions such as parametric insurance, are fueling increased demand for such covers from events companies.”
Typically, event organizers must choose between event cancellation coverage — a broad policy that compensates the insured if their event is cancelled for a multitude of reasons beyond their control — or a parametric weather policy that pays an agreed sum if a certain weather trigger is hit, for example, half an inch of rain over four hours.
While the weather policy won’t cover against the wide range of perils the cancellation policy would (such as fire, terrorism or road blockages), it does cover against the lost income from attendees leaving a weather-affected event early. But that kind of loss wouldn’t be covered under a cancellation policy because the event must be cancelled to trigger a payout.
“This presents companies with a tough choice. They usually don’t have the budget for both policies, and weather can be a little more expensive as it is a stated value policy.
“If the client picks the wrong coverage and loses money, they will be upset,” said Marlene Benoit, promotions and events leader for broker Lockton.
Beazley has gone some way to bridge the gap with a new product that is a hybrid of both types of coverage. As well as offering broad cancellation cover, the product also establishes a weather trigger on which it will pay a fixed sum to compensate for lost revenue.
Benoit said she believed other insurers may soon introduce similar products.
“When the industry comes up with something unique in the marketplace, others will follow, particularly when it is well-received and there is demand.”
Weather observation techniques and data gathering has improved markedly in recent decades, and insurers now have a data bank of at least 30 years of high-quality data as a base for their underwriting.
“Additionally, the capacity to process these data has improved tremendously, which gives us very sophisticated indexes that better reflect the clients’ risk,” said Touffut.
However, gaps in coverage remain.
“We allow the insured to choose a threshold amount of rain at the front end of the policy. However, we can’t cover every eventuality,” said Phillips.
“If they insure against half an inch of rain but it rains 0.49 inches and people still leave their event, there will be a gap in cover.”
“Due to budgeting, companies may choose a threshold that is too high, and when they have a weather claim, it doesn’t hit the trigger mark, so they end up paying for a policy that doesn’t pay out,” said Benoit.
Indeed, while improved climate data makes weather parametrics relatively reliable, attendee spending behavior is harder to predict.
“We try to bring our knowledge of what we’ve seen in the past to give guidance, but it is still subjective,” admitted Phillips.
If more than one-third of an inch of rain falls, some attendees will normally leave an event, Phillips said, particularly if the rain falls persistently over several hours rather than in a short, sharp downpour. Clients typically stand to lose around 20 percent of their projected revenues from weather-related departures, though this figure could vary depending on the nature of the crowd, he added.
Combining weather data with Big Data on consumer spending habits to model the effect weather has on behavior at events seems an obvious next step to enhance the insurance offering.
Insureds can improve their chances of securing appropriate coverage by delving deep into their own revenue histories. “We ask the client for historical cancellation and revenue data over the longest period possible,” said Touffut.
Combining weather data with Big Data on consumer spending habits to model the effect weather has on behavior at events seems an obvious next step to enhance the insurance offering. However, James Ingham, head of renewables at risk analytics specialist Sciemus, said that in an age when “data is king,” it may be hard to get data providers to collaborate.
“It can be done, but you would need a large provider like Google Public, for example, to host data covering multiple events across multiple demographics and geographies over a number of years in order to give event organizers full confidence in the inferences. You would also need a secure neutral environment to encourage Big Data providers from other areas such as credit card providers to also collaborate,” he said.
Touffut added that as the quality and amount of data and Big Data processing methods continue to improve, “indexes will become more precise and the models used to design parametric insurance products will even more accurately reflect the clients’ risk.”
“Furthermore, as parametric insurance fixes most of the ‘pain points’ of traditional insurance, both from the claims view and from the purchasing view, we expect this type of insurance to greatly propagate and eventually cannibalize some forms of traditional insurance,” he said.
But as Phillips pointed out, it is often only after an events company suffers a damaging loss that they will consider seeking cover. “Someone may have run an event for 30 years and never had a problem, but weather is changing. Companies can’t afford to rest on past weather patterns.” &
Hailstorms Grow Less Predictable and More Expensive
Hailstorms increased in frequency and severity over the last 20 years, largely a result of climate change and more extreme weather conditions. Insurance costs are spiking as a result, too.
Hail causes about $1 billion in damage to crops and property in the United States every year, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
In 2015, NOAA’s Severe Storms database recorded 5,411 major hailstorms. The worst affected area was Texas, with 783 hailstorms.
“The hardest part for some customers has been that there have been successive hailstorms.” — Jill Dalton, managing director, Aon Global Risk Consulting
This year, hailstorms in late March and April are expected to result in total losses to vehicles, homes and businesses in north San Antonio and Bexar County of more than $2 billion, according to the Insurance Council of Texas.
San Antonio’s first hailstorm on April 12 became the costliest hailstorm in Texas history, the council said.
Between 2000 and 2013, U.S. insurers paid out almost $54 billion in claims from hail losses, and 70 percent of the losses occurred in just the last six years, said a report by Verisk Insurance Solutions.
The average claim severity was also 65 percent higher during that period, than from 2000 to 2007, the report said. Most losses were from broken windows and roof damage.
Added to that, hailstorms are increasingly harder to forecast and are occurring in unlikely places, with reports of hail this year in warmer climates such as South Florida.
Trying to Better Understand How Hail is Produced
Now, insurers and scientists are trying to better understand how hail is produced and take steps to mitigate damage.
“The hardest part for some customers has been that there have been successive hailstorms,” Jill Dalton, managing director at Aon Global Risk Consulting.
“When it happens over such a short period of time, as in the case of the recent Texas hailstorms, it’s hard to deduce what was damage from the first storm versus the third or fourth storm.”
Steve Bowen, director at Aon Benfield’s Impact Forecasting team, said that the location and intensity of the hailstorm were the most important factors in determining the magnitude of hail damage.
For example, if a hailstorm hits a more densely populated area it is likely to cause more damage.
“It is really important to emphasize that the total number of hail reports does not necessarily correlate to either higher or lower level of losses,” he said.
He said that, overall, insurable damage resulting from severe convective storms in the United States increased by 6.5 percent above the rate of inflation annually since 1980, most of which was attributed to hailstorms.
“The research done will also enable us to characterize the event in order to forecast future storms more effectively.” — Ian Giammanco, lead research meteorologist, IBHS Research Center
The Insurance Institute of Business & Home Safety (IBHS), a consortium of insurers, has been working with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., to find ways to strengthen homes and businesses against hail damage.
“Overall hail losses are going up and a lot of it is to do with that fact that we are simply putting a lot more stuff in the path of storms nowadays,” said Ian Giammanco, lead research meteorologist at the IBHS Research Center.
“So, moving forward now, risk mitigation strategies are going to become much more important and that can be achieved with improved product and testing to ensure that they are properly hail resistant.
“The research done will also enable us to characterize the event in order to forecast future storms more effectively.”
Take Steps to Reduce Losses
Lynne McChristian, Florida representative for the Insurance Information Institute, said that given the difference in quality of roofing materials in terms of impact resistance, it was paramount to invest in the proper type of covering.
Others steps include making sure that the roof is fully secured.
The insurance industry has an Underwriters Laboratory standard for roofing material with four classes of impact level. Class 4 is the most resistant. In some cases, insurers will provide a discount for roofs made with hail resistant materials.
After the event, it is important to assess any damage and protect property against further damage by covering broken windows and plugging holes in the roof.
Most property insurance policies will cover against hail damage, as will comprehensive auto coverage.
“A hailstorm is a typically covered loss included as a named peril,” said Dalton.
She added that usually there are no policy limits on hail and most coverage is subject to a deductible.
In hail prone areas, such as Texas and South Carolina, the deductible is higher than for other perils. However, both states have a fund to provide hail coverage in areas where it is not available in the private market.
After the event, it is important to assess any damage and protect property against further damage by covering broken windows and plugging holes in the roof.
It is also key to file claims as soon as possible and to keep any receipts for purchases made for immediate repairs and to then submit them to your insurer.
Think You Don’t Need Environmental Insurance?
“I don’t work with hazardous materials.”
“My industry isn’t regulated by the EPA.”
“We have an environmental health and safety team, and a response plan in place.”
“We’ve never had an environmental loss.”
“I have coverage through my other general liability and property policies.”
These are the justifications clients most often give insurers for not procuring environmental insurance. For companies outside of sectors with obvious exposure — oil and gas, manufacturing, transportation — the risk of environmental damage may appear marginal and coverage unnecessary.
“Environmental insurance is not like every other insurance,” said Mary Ann Susavidge, Chief Underwriting Officer, Environmental, XL Catlin. “The exposure is unique for every operation and claims don’t happen often, so many businesses view coverage as a discretionary purchase. But the truth is that no one is immune to environmental liability risk.”
Every business needs to be aware of their environmental exposures. To do that, they need a partner with the experience to help them identify exposures and guide them through the remediation claims process after an incident. The environmental team at XL Catlin has been underwriting these risks for 30 years.
“Insureds might not experience this type of claim every day, but our environmental team does,” said Matt O’Malley, President, North America Environmental, XL Catlin. “We’ve seen what can happen if you’re not prepared.”
Susavidge and O’Malley debunked some of the common myths behind decisions to forego environmental coverage:
Myth: My business is not subject to environmental regulations.
Reality: Other regulators and business partners will require some degree of environmental protection.
Regulatory agencies like OSHA are more diligent than ever about indoor air quality and water systems testing after several outbreaks of Legionnaires disease.
“The regulators often set the trends in environmental claims,” Susavidge said. “In the real estate area it started with testing for radon, and now there’s more concern over mold and legionella.”
Multiple hotels have been forced to shut down after testing revealed legionella in their plumbing or cooling systems. In addition to remediation costs, business interruption losses can climb quickly.
For some industries, environmental insurance acts as a critical business enabler because investors require it. Many real estate developers, for example, are moving into urban areas where their clients want to live and work, but vacant lots are scarce. Those still available may be covering up an urban landfill or a brownfield.
“We’re able to provide expertise on those sites and the development risks so the contractor can get comfortable working on it. It’s about allowing our clients to stay relevant in their markets,” O’Malley said. “In this case, the developer is not an insured with a typical environmental exposure. But if there is a contaminant on the worksite, they could inadvertently disperse it. In a high-population urban area, the impact could be large.”
Banks also quite often require the coverage specifically because developers are turning to these locations with higher potential environmental risk.
“Though it’s not a legal requirement, insurance is a facilitator to the deal that developers really can’t operate without,” Susavidge said.
Myth: The small environmental exposure I have would be covered under other polices.
Reality: Environmental losses can result from exposure to off-site events and are excluded by many property and casualty policies.
Environmental risks on adjoining properties can lead to major third party losses. Vapor intrusion under the foundation of one property, for example, can unknowingly underlie the neighboring properties as well. The vapor intrusion can then seep into the surrounding properties, endangering employees and guests.
In other words, your neighbor’s environmental exposure may become your environmental exposure.
O’Malley described a claim in which a petroleum pipeline burst, affecting properties and natural resources 10 miles downstream even though the pipeline was shut off two minutes after the rupture. The energy company that owns the pipeline might have coverage, but what about the other impacted organizations? Many other property policies exclude environmental damage.
Sometimes the exposure is even more unexpected. In 2005, for example, a train carrying tons of chlorine gas crashed into a parked train set sitting in the yard of Avondale Mills — a South Carolina textile plant. The gas permanently damaged plant equipment and forced the operation to shut down.
“It’s not always obvious when you have an environmental exposure,” Susavidge said.
“When there is a big loss or a pattern of losses, the casualty market will typically move to exclude it,” said O’Malley. “And that’s where the environmental team looks for a solution. Environmental coverage has been developed to fill the gaps that other coverages won’t touch.”
Myth: We already have a thorough response plan if there is an incident.
Reality: Properly handling an environmental event requires experience and expertise.
In addition to coverage, risk managers need experience and expertise on their side when navigating environmental claims.
“For many of our clients, their first environmental claim is a very different experience because the claimant is not always a typical third party – it’s a government agency or some other organization that they lack experience with,” Susavidge said. “Our claims team is made up of attorneys that have specific domain experience litigating environmental claims issues.”
Beyond its legal staff, XL Catlin’s claims consulting team and risk engineers come with specialized expertise in environmental issues. 85 to 90 percent of the team members are former environmental engineers and scientists, civil engineers, chemists, and geologists.
“Handling environmental claims requires specialized expertise with contaminants and different types of pollution events,” O’Malley said. “That’s why our 30 years of experience makes a difference.”
Thirty years in the business also means 30 years of loss data.
“That informs us as a carrier how to provide the right types of services for the right clients,” Susavidge said. “It gives us insight into what our insureds are likely to experience and help us determine what support they need.”
Insureds also benefit from the relationships that XL Catlin has built in the industry over those 30 years. When the XL Catlin team is engaged following a covered pollution event, the XL Catlin claims team can deploy seasoned, experienced third party contractors that partner with the insured to address the spill and the potential reputational risk. And they receive guidance on communicating with regulatory bodies and following proper reporting procedures.
“The value of the policy goes beyond the words that are written,” O’Malley said. “It’s the service we provide to help clients get back on their feet, so they can focus on their business rather than the event itself.”
For more information on XL Catlin’s environmental coverage and services, visit http://xlcatlin.com/insurance/insurance-coverage/casualty-insurance.
The information contained herein is intended for informational purposes only. Insurance coverage in any particular case will depend upon the type of policy in effect, the terms, conditions and exclusions in any such policy, and the facts of each unique situation. No representation is made that any specific insurance coverage would apply in the circumstances outlined herein. Please refer to the individual policy forms for specific coverage details. XL Catlin, the XL Catlin logo and Make Your World Go are trademarks of XL Group Ltd companies. XL Catlin is the global brand used by XL Group Ltd’s (re)insurance subsidiaries. In the US, the insurance companies of XL Group Ltd are: Catlin Indemnity Company, Catlin Insurance Company, Inc., Catlin Specialty Insurance Company, Greenwich Insurance Company, Indian Harbor Insurance Company, XL Insurance America, Inc., and XL Specialty Insurance Company. Not all of the insurers do business in all jurisdictions nor is coverage available in all jurisdictions. Information accurate as of September 2016.
This article was produced by the R&I Brand Studio, a unit of the advertising department of Risk & Insurance, in collaboration with XL Catlin. The editorial staff of Risk & Insurance had no role in its preparation.