Wind Turbines Slow Down Hurricane Winds
Off the New York coastline would be a perfect place for an array of wind turbines, according to a Stanford professor. It would not only offer clean energy to the Big Apple but it would protect it the next time a Superstorm Sandy comes calling.
“If you have a large enough array of wind turbines, you can prevent the wind speeds [of a hurricane] from ever getting up to the destructive wind speeds,” said Mark Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University.
Computer models demonstrated that offshore wind turbines reduce peak wind speeds in hurricanes by up to 92 mph and decrease storm surge by up to 79 percent, said Jacobson, who worked on the study with University of Delaware researchers Cristina Archer and Willett Kempton.
“The additional benefits are there is zero cost unlike seawalls, which would cost about $30 billion,” he said, noting that the wind turbines “generate electricity so they pay for themselves.”
The researchers studied three hurricanes, Sandy and Isaac, which struck New York and New Orleans, respectively, in 2012; and Katrina, which slammed into New Orleans in 2005. Generally, 70 percent of damage is caused by storm surge, with wind causing the remaining 30 percent, he said.
That’s why onshore wind farms would not be as effective, he said. While they would reduce the wind speed, they wouldn’t impact storm surge.
In 2013, one of the “most inactive” Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, insured losses totaled $920 million, according to Guy Carpenter, which relied on information from the Mexican Association of Insurance Institutions. The most noteworthy events were Hurricane Ingrid in the Atlantic and Tropical Storm Manuel in the Pacific, which displaced thousands as they caused excessive rainfall, flooding and mudslides.
According to the Insurance Information Institute, Katrina was the costliest hurricane in insurance history, at $48.7 billion, followed by Andrew in 1992 at $25.6 billion and Sandy at $18.8 billion. Economic losses, of course, were much higher.
Wind turbines, which can withstand speeds of up to 112 mph, dissipate the hurricane winds from the outside-in, according to Jacobson’s study. First, they slow down the outer rotation winds, which feeds back to decrease wave height. That reduces the movement of air toward the center of the hurricane, and increases the central pressure, which in turn slows the winds of the entire hurricane and dissipates it faster.
The benefit would occur whether the turbines were immediately upstream of a city, or along an expanse of coastline. It could take anywhere from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of wind turbines off the coast to offer sufficient hurricane protection.
At present, there are no wind farms off the U.S. coastline, although 18 have been proposed for off the East Coast. Proposals have also been made for off the West Coast and the Great Lakes. There are 25 operational wind farms off the coast of Europe.
“Overall,” Jacobson and his colleagues concluded in the study, “we find here that large arrays of electricity-generating offshore wind turbines may diminish hurricane risk cost-effectively while reducing air pollution and global warming, and providing local or regionally sourced energy supply.”
An Electrifying Threat
Energy and the natural resources industry face especially grim cyber threats.
“If there is a cyber attack, you can’t see or touch that attacker so your ability to quickly respond may or may not be successful,” said Norma Krayem, a senior policy adviser at the Patton Boggs law firm and co-chair of the firm’s homeland security, defense and technology transfer practice group.
“I think the likelihood of such an attack absolutely exists,” she said. “I think the question becomes more about who, when and why.”
According to Symantec, a data security company, the energy sector “has become a major focus for targeted attacks and is now among the top five most targeted sectors worldwide.”
The threats may come from competitive spying, corporate espionage, cyber criminals, hacktivism, disgruntled employees and state-sponsored disruptions, it said.
A bad result doesn’t even necessarily have to begin with bad intent, said Cliff Lancaster, senior risk analyst at Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co. (HSB).
At the Davis–Besse Nuclear Power Station in Ohio, for example, the network became infected with a worm that shut it down for five hours in 2003 because a software consultant had created a shortcut for his own convenience that bypassed the firewall, he said.
Possible Widespread Devastation
As security measures increase, employees and vendors may be ever more tempted to bypass procedures, just to more easily get their work done.
Between July 2012 and June 2013, 16 percent of all cyber attacks each day targeted companies in the energy sector, according to Symantec. Only the government or public sector had more targeted attacks.
And should the energy delivery system be disrupted, that threatens the country’s finance, transportation, health care, water supply and emergency services systems — all of which depend on reliable energy.
– Norma Krayem, senior policy adviser, Patton Boggs
Electric grid vulnerabilities that lead to power disruptions are estimated to cost the U.S. economy between $119 billion to $188 billion each year, according to a 2013 report on grid vulnerability by Rep. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., and Rep. Henry A. Waxman, D-Calif.
“Power disruptions today generally do not lead to insured losses,” said Robert Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute.
“However, it seems only a matter of time before a major cyber attack leads to the type of damage covered by standard property and liability policies,” he said.
“As we look at what hackers have been able to do in terms of infiltrating presumed secure systems — even entities like the Department of Defense — it seems there must be vulnerabilities in the systems associated with major infrastructure in this country, whether it’s electric, water, transportation or communications.”
Complex Risk Management
The degree to which computer technology and networking are integral to the energy sector in an operational sense makes it a particularly complex risk-management challenge, said John Kerns, executive managing director of Beecher Carlson Financial Services.
“There was a question posed to us by a client earlier this year: What if there were a denial-of-service attack or virus that shut down the gas pipelines coming into Chicago in the middle of winter. Homes went cold and people went to the hospital or even died. There was no physical damage, but clearly there was a serious impact, and loss,” he said.
The challenges are not confined to traditional energy markets either, said Charles Long, vice president of renewable energy and green technology at William Gallagher Associates. “Many computers are covered under a basic commercial package, and wind farms have separate coverage. If there is a lightning strike, that is surely covered. If data just failed, that can be covered by E&O, but data corruption or a virus, that kind of thing is very much still under consideration.”
Fred Podolsky, executive vice president, executive risk, Alliant Insurance Services, said that “only a small fraction,” maybe 10 percent of U.S. based utility companies have bought cover, and most of the policies that have been purchased relate to data breach exposures.
Some companies, however, have “woken up and are looking for cover” to help them repair their power-generation network and computer systems should they be damaged, or to protect them from other service interruption or customer liability issues, he said.
But many utilities refuse to provide underwriters with sufficient information to get the coverage they need, he said.
The main reason? “It’s just a pure confidentiality concern. IT folks are just so fearful to release any information to anyone having to do with their security procedures, though pressure is building from risk management and others in the C-suite to address these exposures,” Podolsky said.
While protecting the actual control systems of energy companies is a high priority that is audited by the federal government, the smart grid — that measures and creates a more efficient distribution of electricity based on use — is vulnerable, said HSB’s Lancaster.
If false data were injected into that system, it could potentially cause turbine generators to speed up when they shouldn’t. “If you can get it spinning at the wrong speed,” he said, “it can just shake itself to death.”
Once a turbine or transformer is damaged, there is a limited amount of replacement equipment.
And once a turbine or transformer is damaged, there is a limited amount of replacement equipment, he said. “If you are able to damage many pieces of equipment at once, it would take a lot of time to fix it because you have to build and rebuild lots of equipment,” Lancaster said.
Krayem said the connectivity of entities that distribute electric power, for example, means there could be “cascading failures” throughout the country.
“You have this patchwork of systems that are being cobbled together, a lot of them are legacy systems, and they are not necessarily all at the same level of security,” she said.
According to KPMG, which cited data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the “constant barrage of cyber attacks” on water and energy companies “usually take the form of cyber espionage or denial-of-service attacks against industrial-control systems.”
Inadequate Security Controls
The consultancy also noted that a survey by The Centre for Strategic and International Studies in 2010, found that critical infrastructure, including power grids, industrial control networks and oil refineries “are not adequately prepared to defend themselves.”
Video: Dissecting Stuxnet
The most famous of all attacks on an energy system occurred in Iran when unknown forces — believed to be the United States and Israel — created the Stuxnet worm, specially designed to target Iran’s specific industrial control system and reprogram it so that the nuclear centrifuges spun out of control and damaged themselves while the displays indicated normal functioning.
Most notably, Stuxnet spread using a USB drive, infecting networks that were unreachable by the Internet.
Another disturbing attack occurred in 2012, when a cyber attack hit Saudi Aramco, one of the largest oil producers in the world. The disruption, which continued for two weeks, disabled more than 30,000 of the company’s workstations.
The virus, later named “Shamoon,” was the first significant cyber attack on a commercial target to cause real damage. It is also the most destructive attack the private sector has experienced to date, said Malcolm Marshall, global leader for information protection at KPMG, based in London.
Marshall said that “one senior oil-industry executive to whom I spoke shortly after the Shamoon incident told me, ‘Well, there goes our worst-case scenario.’ ”
That same month, Rasgas, in Qatar, was hit by the same virus and forced to bring its entire network off line.
In 2011, hackers were able to install malware and “evidence of a sophisticated threat actor” was found in the U.S. energy sector, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office.
An Active Market
Marshall noted that, in the aggregate, the global oil and gas industry “is effectively self-insured, but cyber security is an active and growing commercial market, especially in the U.S. It seems likely that will become an economic necessity.”
Kerns at Beecher Carlson said, “We are seeing multiple policies responding to these threats. Those include dedicated cyber policies, D&O coverage, and in the energy sector, even general liability policies are responding.”
That said, he added that “the insurance market is looking aggressively at cyber risk, and is putting on new exemptions, restrictions, and limits. The gray areas are still some GL, bodily injury, and third-party injury. Mostly, we are seeing GL carriers not willing to pick up many risks. That leaves owners and brokers to see what the cyber market is willing to do.
“There is capacity to address business interruption, but we are having to press on bodily injury and property damage as they relate to cyber,” he said.
Complete coverage on the inevitable cyber threat:
Risk managers are waking up to the reality that the cyber risk landscape has changed.
Cyber: The New CAT. It’s not a matter of if, but when. Cyber risk is a foundation-level exposure that must be viewed with the same gravity as a company’s property, liability or workers’ comp risks.
Critical Condition. The proliferation of medical devices creates a host of scary risks for the beleaguered health care industry.
Disabled Autos. It’s alarmingly easy for a hacker to take control of a driverless vehicle, tampering with braking systems or scrambling the GPS.
Unmanned Risk. The dark side of remote-controlled drones, which have already been hacked — by students.
Achieving More Fluid Case Management
Risk management practitioners point to a number of factors that influence the outcome of workers’ compensation claims. But readily identifiable factors shouldn’t necessarily be managed in a box.
To identify and discuss the changing issues influencing workers’ compensation claim outcomes, Risk & Insurance®, in partnership with Duluth, Ga.-based Healthcare Solutions, convened an April roundtable discussion in Philadelphia.
The discussion, moderated by Dan Reynolds, editor-in-chief of Risk & Insurance®, featured participation from four tenured claims management professionals.
This roundtable was ruled by a pragmatic tone, characterized by declarations on solutions that are finding traction on many current workers’ compensation challenges.
The advantages of face-to-face case management visits with injured workers got some of the strongest support at the roundtable.
“What you can assess from somebody’s home environment, their motivation, their attitude, their desire to get well or not get well is easy to do when you are looking at somebody and sitting in their home,” participant Barb Ritz said, a workers’ compensation manager in the office of risk services at the Temple University Health System in Philadelphia.
Telephonic case management gradually replaced face-to-face visits in many organizations, but participants said the pendulum has swung back and face-to-face visits are again more widely valued.
In person visits are beneficial not only in assessing the claimant’s condition and attitude, but also in providing an objective ear to annotate the dialogue between doctors and patients.
“Oftentimes, injured workers who go to physician appointments only retain about 20 percent of what the doctor is telling them,” said Jean Chambers, a Lakeland, Fla.-based vice president of clinical services for Bunch CareSolutions. “When you have a nurse accompanying the claimant, the nurse can help educate the injured worker following the appointment and also provide an objective update to the employer on the injured worker’s condition related to the claim.”
“The relationship that the nurse develops with the claimant is very important,” added Christine Curtis, a manager of medical services in the workers’ compensation division of New Cumberland, Pa.-based School Claims Services.
“It’s also great for fraud detection. During a visit the nurse can see symptoms that don’t necessarily match actions, and oftentimes claimants will tell nurses things they shouldn’t if they want their claim to be accepted,” Curtis said.
For these reasons and others, Curtis said that she uses onsite nursing.
Roundtable participant Susan LaBar, a Yardley, Pa.-based risk manager for transportation company Coach USA, said when she first started her job there, she insisted that nurses be placed on all lost-time cases. But that didn’t happen until she convinced management that it would work.
“We did it and the indemnity dollars went down and it more than paid for the nurses,” she said. “That became our model. You have to prove that it works and that takes time, but it does come out at the end of the day,” she said.
The ultimate outcome
Reducing costs is reason enough for implementing nurse case management, but many say safe return-to-work is the ultimate measure of a good outcome. An aging, heavier worker population plagued by diabetes, hypertension, and orthopedic problems and, in many cases, painkiller abuse is changing the very definition of safe return-to-work.
Roundtable members were unanimous in their belief that offering even the most undemanding forms of modified duty is preferable to having workers at home for extended periods of time.
“Return-to-work is the only way to control the workers’ comp cost. It’s the only way,” said Coach USA’s Susan LaBar.
Unhealthy households, family cultures in which workers’ compensation fraud can be a way of life and physical and mental atrophy are just some of the pitfalls that modified duty and return-to-work in general can help stave off.
“I take employees back in any capacity. So long as they can stand or sit or do something,” Ritz said. “The longer you’re sitting at home, the longer you’re disconnected. The next thing you know you’re isolated and angry with your employer.”
“Return-to-work is the only way to control the workers’ comp cost. It’s the only way,” said Coach USA’s Susan LaBar.
Whose story is it?
Managing return-to-work and nurse supervision of workers’ compensation cases also play important roles in controlling communication around the case. Return-to-work and modified duty can more quickly break that negative communication chain, roundtable participants said.
There was some disagreement among participants in the area of fraud. Some felt that workers’ compensation fraud is not as prevalent as commonly believed.
On the other hand, Coach USA’s Susan LaBar said that many cases start out with a legitimate injury but become fraudulent through extension.
“I’m talking about a process where claimants drag out the claim, treatment continues and they never come back to work,” she said.
Social media, as in all aspects of insurance fraud, is also playing an important role. Roundtable participants said Facebook is the first place they visit when they get a claim. Unbridled posts of personal information have become a rich library for case managers looking for indications of fraud.
“What you can assess from somebody’s home environment, their motivation, their attitude, their desire to get well or not get well is easy to do when you are looking at somebody and sitting in their home,” said participant Barb Ritz.
As daunting as co-morbidities have become, roundtable participants said that data has become a useful tool. Information about tobacco use, weight, diabetes and other complicating factors is now being used by physicians and managed care vendors to educate patients and better manage treatment.
“Education is important after an injury occurs,” said Rich Leonardo, chief sales officer for Healthcare Solutions, who also sat in on the roundtable. “The nurse is not always delivering news the patient wants to hear, so providing education on how the process is going to work is helpful.”
“We’re trying to get people to ‘Know your number’, such as to know what your blood pressure and glucose levels are,” said SCS’s Christine Curtis. “If you have somebody who’s diabetic, hypertensive and overweight, that nurse can talk directly to the injured worker and say, ‘Look, I know this is a sensitive issue, but we want you to get better and we’ll work with you because improving your overall health is important to helping you recover.”
The costs of co-morbidities are pushing case managers to be more frank in patient dialogue. Information about smoking cessation programs and weight loss approaches is now more freely offered.
Managing constant change
Anyone responsible for workers’ compensation knows that medical costs have been rising for years. But medical cost is not the only factor in the case management equation that is in motion.
The pendulum swing between technology and the human touch in treating injured workers is ever in flux. Even within a single program, the decision on when it is best to apply nurse case management varies.
“It used to be that every claim went to a nurse and now the industry is more selective,” said Bunch CareSolutions’ Jean Chambers. “However, you have to be careful because sometimes it’s the ones that seem to be a simple injury that can end up being a million dollar claim.”
“Predictive analytics can be used to help organizations flag claims for case management, but the human element will never be replaced,” Leonardo concluded.