Workers’ Comp Forecast for 2014
1. Predictive Analytics.
Using predictive analytics effectively is the holy grail for any large company.
If you are a staffing company, oil field service operation, or retailer working on tight margins, getting this right can mean the difference between a profitable year or needing to increase liability accruals to account for ever-increasing long tail development.
There is a need to not only develop models for making predictions but to be able to provide actionable information that can be used to quantify the cost/benefit of taking very specific actions. If this could be accomplished, insurers and large self-insured companies could efficiently allocate resources to the areas likely to provide the most meaningful benefit.
2. TRIA is Non-Renewed.
The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) or Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA) is scheduled to expire on Dec. 31. Even now, as we are without a decision, insurers are being exposed to unlimited terrorism-related workers’ compensation liability (based on an annual policy period).
TRIA has been in place since 2002, when Congress acted to ensure that there was a market-based solution for insurance losses arising out of terrorist acts. It is generally agreed that the sponsors of that Act suggested that it could one day be phased out, and throughout its life, the protection has been diminished. However, what remains are clear limits that comfort investors and others in the financial community.
While the Act remains unrenewed, it is the witching hour for insurers. Consequently, insurers are in the process of preparing their position with respect to the issue.
3. Loss Costs in California Deteriorate.
When California Gov. Edmund “Jerry” Brown signed the workers’ compensation reform legislation into law Sept. 18, he said that it would reverse a four-year trend of rate increases. According to the data made available to us, the insurance market clearly disagrees.
As a matter of fact, California is the state producing the highest rate increases. Possibly, the reform medicine is slow acting and good news for employers in California is on its way.
The problem in California is not a new one. At one point, the state insurance fund was writing more than 50 percent of the workers’ compensation market. That
is the fund that was created to be the market of last resort as it is a government enterprise.
What is clear is it is becoming more common for insurers to place limitations on the amount of California workers’ compensation they will write. The concern is that in the current environment it is simply impossible to be profitable. It is a subtle movement to avoid a head-on clash with regulators.
4. IRS Focuses on Insurers and Captives.
The uniqueness and secret to success for the insurance industry is its favorable tax treatment. Money comes in, expected future losses are deducted and cash is available for investment and growth. The big difference is that expenses do not need to be paid but only accrued to reduce taxable income. That leaves more cash for investment.
There has been discussion about scrutiny of taxation for insurance companies and captives, the alternative risk tool of choice. Captives are on the short list for IRS auditors and if captives are not properly structured, there is more risk that those captives will now be challenged.
5. Trial Attorneys to Target Non-Subscription.
Approximately one-third of the employers in Texas are non-subscribers. Why? Because it makes sense. It saves on frictional costs, quickly provides benefits to employees who are injured and eliminates much of the soft fraud. It has been so successful that Oklahoma enacted its own reform effort, and Tennessee is considering legislative initiatives to enhance opportunities for non-subscription.
Even without a survey, we can safely assume that the majority of plaintiff’s attorneys are not big fans of non-subscription. Benefits for non-subscription are paid out via the Employee Retirement Income Security Act. There is no need for a legal process. There is no waiting period. There are clear definitions that are subject to arbitration.
In contrast, workers’ compensation commonly requires a legal process. Should an attorney become involved in a case where there is an injury within the course of employment, the attorney’s share, although not as large as in a tort case, is for all intents and purposes no-fault. For legal firms, workers’ compensation is high volume, low risk and considerable reward.
Consequently, we would think that should non-subscription become popular in Oklahoma and be signed into law in Tennessee that it may become a target of the bar.
6. Medicare Set Asides Become Increasingly Difficult.
MSAs, as they are called, are a complicated thing. In general, money is set aside to pay benefits for costs that otherwise would be funded by Medicare. It applies only to certain classes of individuals. With an aging workforce, it has become a big and expensive issue for insurance companies.
The problem is that claims can’t be settled quickly and efficiently as government sign-off is required. The impact has been a substantial increase in large claims severity. Further, it has helped to create longer tail development. What this means is that all companies will end up with longer periods of loss development in the form of greater IBNR (Incurred but not reported losses). It translates into more collateral, higher costs and higher liability accruals.
7. Bond Yields Plummet.
Nothing has had a greater impact on the insurance market than the change in bond yields post-2008. It required underwriters to make a profit underwriting. That changed the dynamics of the marketplace and the way the big insurers look at their business.
While it is hard to imagine, it is possible that rates of return on bonds could get much lower. Should there be a European meltdown, recession in Asia or the refusal of China and others to continue to fund our deficits, rates will fall. Should this happen there will be no escaping the need for rate adjustments across all lines of insurance as the dynamics of the current market will be left smoldering once again.
Little Progress Reducing Shoulder Claims
While the nationwide frequency of workplace injuries impacting other body parts, such as lower backs, continues on a downward trend, workers’ compensation experts say they have not seen a corresponding drop in workers suffering from shoulder problems.
Shoulder injuries can require longer recovery times than do other body parts, diminishing the likelihood of a quick return to work, several medical experts said.
“Shoulder claims are huge now,” with the joints of an aging workforce wearing down, said Liz Thompson, CEO at Encore Unlimited LLC, a case management company in Stevens Point, Wisconsin. Treatment options are often expensive, particularly for older workers who are more likely to suffer accompanying comorbidities, she added.
Thompson recently analyzed the claims from one insurer client and found that 70 percent of those stemmed from extremity injuries, including many shoulder issues, she said.
Similarly, Judie Tsanopoulos, director of workers’ comp and loss control at St. Joseph Health System in Orange, Calif. said that beginning about three years ago she observed a rise in shoulder injuries and incidences of frozen shoulder.
“We see far more shoulders,” Tsanopoulos said.
When she drilled into her company claims data she found that women aged 40 to 60 years old accounted for many of those shoulder issues, she said.
Other workers’ compensation experts say they have not seen an overall increase in the frequency of shoulder-related injuries. Yet despite nationwide gains in reducing injuries to other body parts, shoulder injuries are not decreasing.
An NCCI Holdings Inc. report released on July 18 states, among other findings, that from 2008 to 2012 the frequency of lost-time claims for most body parts dropped an average of 13.9 percent.
“One notable exception is that the frequency of injuries involving the arm and shoulder, which represent more than 15 percent of all injuries, remained flat over the period,” dropping only 1 percent, according to NCCI’s frequency report.
In contrast, lower back claims dropped 15 percent during the period while upper back claims dropped 7 percent. Upper back claims showed the least amount of claims decline next to the 1 percent drop in arm and shoulders among body parts.
NCCI’s report stated that the flattening trend in arm and shoulder frequency “may be influenced by an older workforce, where rotator cuff injuries are not uncommon.”
Prior to the flattening in lost-time arm and shoulder claims seen from 2008 to 2012, injuries to those body parts had been declining. They decreased 13 percent from 2004 to 2008 while frequency for all lost-time injuries dropped 17 percent, said Jim Davis, an NCCI director and actuary.
In addition to an aging population more likely to suffer shoulder injuries, more treatments may be occurring today when workers complain about shoulder pain.
In contrast to 20 years ago, doctors are increasingly able to diagnose and address shoulder pain complaints that previously went untreated, said Ira Posner, an MD, orthopedic surgeon, and consultant to third party administrator Broadspire.
“So you are seeing a lot more people with a diagnosis now that we couldn’t make before,” Posner said. “People would present with shoulder pain and we didn’t know why they hurt — now we know why they hurt.”
The improved medical quality means doctors are able to help more workers while workers’ comp payers may now be feeling the increase in shoulder treatments.
“That is why you are seeing more pathology in the shoulder being treated, because we understand the shoulder better and we are able to do more for complaints of shoulder pain,” Posner said.
One cost mitigating factor, however, stems from a shift from conducting mostly open shoulder surgeries to performing more orthoscopic and outpatient treatments, added Jacob Lazarovic, senior VP and chief medical officer at Broadspire.
Still, shoulder injuries typically require more recovery time than do other body parts, experts said.
“Recovering from shoulder surgeries is a pretty prolonged process in the best of cases, but it would be even more prolonged for older workers,” Lazarovic said.
The complexity of shoulder joints adds to the problem, medical experts said.
In addition to a longer recovery time, shoulder injuries such as those requiring rotator cuff surgeries make it challenging for employers to return workers to certain jobs, such as those requiring overhead lifting, said Teresa Bartlett, senior VP and medical director at Sedgwick Claims Management Services Inc.
“Shoulder injuries in general are problematic,” Bartlett said. “Regardless of age, it’s the mechanism of the shoulder that tends to be very difficult.”
In response, Thompson at Encore Unlimited is seeing employers increasingly interested in shoulder protection and corresponding loss control programs.
“Anytime you have an injury group that is driving your claims costs, as an employer you have to evaluate what can you do to eliminate some of that risk,” such as making sure the worker fits the job, she said.
5 & 5: Rewards and Risks of Cloud Computing
Cloud computing lowers costs, increases capacity and provides security that companies would be hard-pressed to deliver on their own. Utilizing the cloud allows companies to “rent” hardware and software as a service and store data on a series of servers with unlimited availability and space. But the risks loom large, such as unforgiving contracts, hidden fees and sophisticated criminal attacks.
ACE’s recently published whitepaper, “Cloud Computing: Is Your Company Weighing Both Benefits and Risks?”, focuses on educating risk managers about the risks and rewards of this ever-evolving technology. Key issues raised in the paper include:
5 benefits of cloud computing
1. Lower infrastructure costs
The days of investing in standalone servers are over. For far less investment, a company can store data in the cloud with much greater capacity. Cloud technology reduces or eliminates management costs associated with IT personnel, data storage and real estate. Cloud providers can also absorb the expenses of software upgrades, hardware upgrades and the replacement of obsolete network and security devices.
2. Capacity when you need it … not when you don’t
Cloud computing enables businesses to ramp up their capacity during peak times, then ramp back down during the year, rather than wastefully buying capacity they don’t need. Take the retail sector, for example. During the holiday season, online traffic increases substantially as consumers shop for gifts. Now, companies in the retail sector can pay for the capacity they need only when they need it.
3. Security and speed increase
Cloud providers invest big dollars in securing data with the latest technology — striving for cutting-edge speed and security. In fact, they provide redundancy data that’s replicated and encrypted so it can be delivered quickly and securely. Companies that utilize the cloud would find it difficult to get such results on their own.
4. Anything, anytime, anywhere
With cloud technology, companies can access data from anywhere, at any time. Take Dropbox for example. Its popularity has grown because people want to share large files that exceed the capacity of their email inboxes. Now it’s expanded the way we share data. As time goes on, other cloud companies will surely be looking to improve upon that technology.
5. Regulatory compliance comes more easily
The data security and technology that regulators require typically come standard from cloud providers. They routinely test their networks and systems. They provide data backups and power redundancy. Some even overtly assist customers with regulatory compliance such as the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) or Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard (PCI DSS).
1. Cloud contracts are unforgiving
Typically, risk managers and legal departments create contracts that mitigate losses caused by service providers. But cloud providers decline such stringent contracts, saying they hinder their ability to keep prices down. Instead, cloud contracts don’t include traditional indemnification or limitations of liability, particularly pertaining to privacy and data security. If a cloud provider suffers a data breach of customer information or sustains a network outage, risk managers are less likely to have the same contractual protection they are accustomed to seeing from traditional service providers.
2. Control is lost
In the cloud, companies are often forced to give up control of data and network availability. This can make staying compliant with regulations a challenge. For example cloud providers use data warehouses located in multiple jurisdictions, often transferring data across servers globally. While a company would be compliant in one location, it could be non-compliant when that data is transferred to a different location — and worst of all, the company may have no idea that it even happened.
3. High-level security threats loom
Higher levels of security attract sophisticated hackers. While a data thief may not be interested in your company’s information by itself, a large collection of data is a prime target. Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) attacks by highly skilled criminals continue to increase — putting your data at increased risk.
4. Hidden costs can hurt
Nobody can dispute the up-front cost savings provided by the cloud. But moving from one cloud to another can be expensive. Plus, one cloud is often not enough because of congestion and outages. More cloud providers equals more cost. Also, regulatory compliance again becomes a challenge since you can never outsource the risk to a third party. That leaves the burden of conducting vendor due diligence in a company’s hands.
5. Data security is actually your responsibility
Yes, security in the cloud is often more sophisticated than what a company can provide on its own. However, many organizations fail to realize that it’s their responsibility to secure their data before sending it to the cloud. In fact, cloud providers often won’t ensure the security of the data in their clouds and, legally, most jurisdictions hold the data owner accountable for security.
Risk managers can’t just take cloud computing at face value. Yes, it’s a great alternative for cost, speed and security, but hidden fees and unexpected threats can make utilization much riskier than anticipated.
Managing the risks requires a deeper understanding of the technology, careful due diligence and constant vigilance — and ACE can help guide an organization through the process.
To learn more about how to manage cloud risks, read the ACE whitepaper: Cloud Computing: Is Your Company Weighing Both Benefits and Risks?