Workers’ Comp Forecast for 2014
1. Predictive Analytics.
Using predictive analytics effectively is the holy grail for any large company.
If you are a staffing company, oil field service operation, or retailer working on tight margins, getting this right can mean the difference between a profitable year or needing to increase liability accruals to account for ever-increasing long tail development.
There is a need to not only develop models for making predictions but to be able to provide actionable information that can be used to quantify the cost/benefit of taking very specific actions. If this could be accomplished, insurers and large self-insured companies could efficiently allocate resources to the areas likely to provide the most meaningful benefit.
2. TRIA is Non-Renewed.
The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) or Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA) is scheduled to expire on Dec. 31. Even now, as we are without a decision, insurers are being exposed to unlimited terrorism-related workers’ compensation liability (based on an annual policy period).
TRIA has been in place since 2002, when Congress acted to ensure that there was a market-based solution for insurance losses arising out of terrorist acts. It is generally agreed that the sponsors of that Act suggested that it could one day be phased out, and throughout its life, the protection has been diminished. However, what remains are clear limits that comfort investors and others in the financial community.
While the Act remains unrenewed, it is the witching hour for insurers. Consequently, insurers are in the process of preparing their position with respect to the issue.
3. Loss Costs in California Deteriorate.
When California Gov. Edmund “Jerry” Brown signed the workers’ compensation reform legislation into law Sept. 18, he said that it would reverse a four-year trend of rate increases. According to the data made available to us, the insurance market clearly disagrees.
As a matter of fact, California is the state producing the highest rate increases. Possibly, the reform medicine is slow acting and good news for employers in California is on its way.
The problem in California is not a new one. At one point, the state insurance fund was writing more than 50 percent of the workers’ compensation market. That
is the fund that was created to be the market of last resort as it is a government enterprise.
What is clear is it is becoming more common for insurers to place limitations on the amount of California workers’ compensation they will write. The concern is that in the current environment it is simply impossible to be profitable. It is a subtle movement to avoid a head-on clash with regulators.
4. IRS Focuses on Insurers and Captives.
The uniqueness and secret to success for the insurance industry is its favorable tax treatment. Money comes in, expected future losses are deducted and cash is available for investment and growth. The big difference is that expenses do not need to be paid but only accrued to reduce taxable income. That leaves more cash for investment.
There has been discussion about scrutiny of taxation for insurance companies and captives, the alternative risk tool of choice. Captives are on the short list for IRS auditors and if captives are not properly structured, there is more risk that those captives will now be challenged.
5. Trial Attorneys to Target Non-Subscription.
Approximately one-third of the employers in Texas are non-subscribers. Why? Because it makes sense. It saves on frictional costs, quickly provides benefits to employees who are injured and eliminates much of the soft fraud. It has been so successful that Oklahoma enacted its own reform effort, and Tennessee is considering legislative initiatives to enhance opportunities for non-subscription.
Even without a survey, we can safely assume that the majority of plaintiff’s attorneys are not big fans of non-subscription. Benefits for non-subscription are paid out via the Employee Retirement Income Security Act. There is no need for a legal process. There is no waiting period. There are clear definitions that are subject to arbitration.
In contrast, workers’ compensation commonly requires a legal process. Should an attorney become involved in a case where there is an injury within the course of employment, the attorney’s share, although not as large as in a tort case, is for all intents and purposes no-fault. For legal firms, workers’ compensation is high volume, low risk and considerable reward.
Consequently, we would think that should non-subscription become popular in Oklahoma and be signed into law in Tennessee that it may become a target of the bar.
6. Medicare Set Asides Become Increasingly Difficult.
MSAs, as they are called, are a complicated thing. In general, money is set aside to pay benefits for costs that otherwise would be funded by Medicare. It applies only to certain classes of individuals. With an aging workforce, it has become a big and expensive issue for insurance companies.
The problem is that claims can’t be settled quickly and efficiently as government sign-off is required. The impact has been a substantial increase in large claims severity. Further, it has helped to create longer tail development. What this means is that all companies will end up with longer periods of loss development in the form of greater IBNR (Incurred but not reported losses). It translates into more collateral, higher costs and higher liability accruals.
7. Bond Yields Plummet.
Nothing has had a greater impact on the insurance market than the change in bond yields post-2008. It required underwriters to make a profit underwriting. That changed the dynamics of the marketplace and the way the big insurers look at their business.
While it is hard to imagine, it is possible that rates of return on bonds could get much lower. Should there be a European meltdown, recession in Asia or the refusal of China and others to continue to fund our deficits, rates will fall. Should this happen there will be no escaping the need for rate adjustments across all lines of insurance as the dynamics of the current market will be left smoldering once again.
The New Normal
Four years after a firefighter sustained third degree burns over 95 percent of his body, he’s not just alive, but he’s counseling other burn victims.
And several years after a 40-something forklift operator suffered a pelvic fracture, a traumatic brain injury and a spinal cord injury, the karate black belt returned to his dojo and hopes to teach karate from his wheelchair.
Five or 10 years ago, these injured workers wouldn’t have lived a week after their injuries, say their medical teams. Thanks to recent advances in medicine and technology, more catastrophically injured workers are surviving and, while not returning to their former functionality, are leading productive lives, said Sherri Hickey, director, medical management, Safety National.
As a result, the workers’ compensation community is “dealing with more, and longer, and more expensive claims,” Hickey said.
A virtue of workers’ compensation coverage, said Dr. Michael Choo, chief medical officer, Paradigm Outcomes, is that it “takes the long view” of the injured worker’s needs. “Generally, health care focuses on the first few weeks, a month, or a year, but effects from burns, spinal cord and traumatic brain injuries last forever.”
Because catastrophic injury claims often last for decades, the goal should be the best functional outcome possible in each case, said Choo, both for the patient’s quality of life and as a claims management strategy. “The best functional outcome translates to the lowest level of disability,” which itself translates to greater independence and lower care costs.
The best care doesn’t come cheap, said Michael Coupland, psychologist and rehabilitation counselor, network medical director, IMCS Group, but it’s cheaper in the long run than cheap care.
“Carriers and employers typically want the best doctors, the best rehab facilities, the best equipment, the best care management because they want to do the right thing for their workers and because the best care prevents returns to the hospital for complications such as skin wounds and infections” — the kinds of ailments that arise from fragmented care, oversight or neglect, said Choo, formerly CEO of a for-profit hospital before joining Paradigm.
“The financial payoff comes down the road.”
Management of these cases can be infinitely complex, he said, as medical conditions may change constantly, affected by comorbidities (such as high blood pressure and obesity, secondary effects of physical inactivity), psychological/social health (which can decline with pain, depression and isolation) and past medical issues.
They also involve a multitude of providers — all the physicians, therapists, home health aides, equipment suppliers and transport services — engaged in the patient’s care. A “big believer in teamwork,” Choo recommends keeping all stakeholders aligned to the same goal, an achievable degree of functionality.
When the financial payoff comes, Choo said, “we get five times better results at 40 percent medical cost savings,” than catastrophically injured patients who receive à la carte care.
Because of the huge volume of traumatic brain injuries, burns, spinal cord injuries and amputations resulting from military engagements, companies have been researching and creating function-restoring technologies, Hickey said.
The results would stun a science fiction writer: skin grafts grown in the laboratory from the patients’ own DNA; drones launched from wheelchairs to conduct surveillance on the surrounding topography; brain-controlled robotic suits that restore some neurological function; exoskeletons.
Most technology is not the gee-whiz stuff. For example, the Apple watch will soon track fitness for wheelchair users. And a device called Pants Up Easy helps wheelchair users and people with spinal cord injuries get dressed.
Effective, low-cost technologies borrowed from smart phone fitness apps are producing a huge shift in patient monitoring, Coupland said.
For example, biofeedback apps measure heart rate variability, an indicator of stress and mood, and provide a mechanism for controlling them. Pain and mood diarizing are moving toward these technologies, as are sleep and activity tracking.
Telehealth technology can help providers manage vital signs all day, not just during an office visit by identifying changes from the baseline, said Kevin Glennon, vice president, home health and complex care services, One Call Care Management. And they’re useful for tracking medications.
“Patients hit a button when they take their meds,” he said, informing providers that they remain on schedule.
While technology can enable more independence, it can also contribute to more sedentary lives. Social media may contribute to inactivity — and obesity.
Obese people need greater doses of medications, and those who are also disabled may need a higher level of care for mobility, bathing and toileting. They may need bariatric or heavy-duty equipment. “If the patient weighs 300 pounds and the power chair weighs 325, the home would need assessment” for weight-bearing capacity, Glennon said.
“Generally, health care focuses on the first few weeks, a month, or a year, but effects from burns, spinal cord and traumatic brain injuries last forever.” — Dr. Michael Choo, chief medical officer, Paradigm Outcomes
On the other hand, technologies such as high-end prosthetics may allow greater independence and activity. “If the patient was a runner before the accident, we’ll buy running as well as walking prosthetics,” Hickey said.
Will carriers pay, especially for new technologies? With input from research and medical experts, payers review on a case-by-case basis, said Maureen McCarthy, senior vice president, claims, Liberty Mutual. “We seek input on experimental devices and treatments. Payment isn’t a barrier to care in the workers’ compensation environment.”
Many factors contribute to a well-planned discharge plan, said Scott Peters, clinical director, neurorehabilitation and neurobehavioral system, ReMed: the worker’s abilities and prognosis, the medical and therapeutic treatment, home modifications, and family support as well as the worker’s outlook on life, ambitions before and after the injury, and likes and dislikes.
For example, said Zack Craft, vice president, rehab solutions, One Call Care Management, while the injured forklift operator — we’ll call him Job for his tribulations and the vigor of his spirit — was still in his high-end inpatient rehab facility, One Call started planning for discharge.
Job wanted to go home and re-engage in the community — itself a predictor of success — not to a step-down facility. However, his return to the split-level home he shared with his wife was impractical because of the cost of modifications; it would require an elevator. Besides, his wife had left him, leaving him with a single income equal to 66 percent of his former salary.
One Call arranged for a year’s lease on an apartment that needed only minor modifications and for a 24/7 home health aide while he sold his house. He applied the sale proceeds to buy a new house.
And he needed transportation. The transport van, although medically justifiable, was very expensive and didn’t fit Job’s idea of himself as a motorcycle and pickup truck sort of guy. A new van would cost a prohibitive $70,000 to $95,000.
Using its network of used vehicles, One Call located a year-old, pre-modified van for $40,000. It applied for and received approval from the Washington State workers’ compensation regulators.
Was Job happy?
“He wanted to return home and get back to living,” Glennon said. “Often, when workers can’t get past the depression and denial, they lose their will to strive for independence.” &
Facing the Unthinkable: What happens in the hours, days and weeks following a sudden, disabling injury?
Road to Recovery: When it’s time to send patients home, there are new challenges to tackle, for both patients and payers.
Creeping Catastrophes: The final story of the series (coming in November) focuses on “creeping” catastrophic claims.
Why Marine Underwriters Should Master Modeling
Better understanding risk requires better exposure data and rigorous application of science and engineering. In addition, catastrophe models have grown in sophistication and become widely utilized by property insurers to assess the potential losses after a major event. Location level modeling also plays a role in helping both underwriters and buyers gain a better understanding of their exposure and sense of preparedness for the worst-case scenario. Yet, many underwriters in the marine sector don’t employ effective models.
“To improve underwriting and better serve customers, we have to ask ourselves if the knowledge around location level modeling is where it needs to be in the marine market space. We as an industry have progress to make,” said John Evans, Head of U.S. Marine, Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance.
CAT Modeling Limitations
The primary reason marine underwriters forgo location level models is because marine risk often fluctuates, making it difficult to develop models that most accurately reflect a project or a location’s true exposure.
Take for example builder’s risk, an inland marine static risk whose value changes throughout the life of the project. The value of a building will increase as it nears completion, so its risk profile will evolve as work progresses. In property underwriting, sophisticated models are developed more easily because the values are fixed.
“If you know your building is worth $10 million today, you have a firm baseline to work with,” Evans said. The best way to effectively model builder’s risk, on the other hand, may be to take the worst-case scenario — or when the project is about 99 percent complete and at peak value (although this can overstate the catastrophe exposure early in the project’s lifecycle).
Warehouse storage also poses modeling challenges for similar reasons. For example, the value of stored goods can fluctuate substantially depending on the time of year. Toys and electronics shipped into the U.S. during August and September in preparation for the holiday season, for example, will decrease drastically in value come February and March. So do you model based on the average value or peak value?
“In order to produce useful models of these risks, underwriters need to ask additional questions and gather as much detail about the insured’s location and operations as possible,” Evans said. “That is necessary to determine when exposure is greatest and how large the impact of a catastrophe could be. Improved exposure data is critical.”
To assess warehouse legal liability exposure, this means finding out not only the fluctuations in the values, but what type of goods are being stored, how they’re being stored, whether the warehouse is built to local standards for wind, earthquake and flood, and whether or not the warehouse owner has implemented any other risk mitigation measures, such as alarm or sprinkler systems.
“Since most models treat all warehouses equally, even if a location doesn’t model well initially, specific measures taken to protect stored goods from damage could yield a substantially different expected loss, which then translates into a very different premium,” Evans said.
That extra information gathering requires additional time but the effort is worth it in the long run.
“Better understanding of an exposure is key to strong underwriting — and strong underwriting is key to longevity and stability in the marketplace,” Evans said.
“If a risk is not properly understood and priced, a customer can find themselves non-renewed after a catastrophe results in major losses — or be paying two or three times their original premium,” he said. Brokers have the job of educating clients about the long-term viability of their relationship with their carrier, and the value of thorough underwriting assessment.
The Model to Follow
So the question becomes: How can insurers begin to elevate location level modeling in the marine space? By taking a cue from their property counterparts and better understanding the exposure using better data, science and engineering.
For stored goods coverage, the process starts with an overview of each site’s risk based on location, the construction of the warehouse, and the type of contents stored. After analyzing a location, underwriters ascertain its average values and maximum values, which can be used to create a preliminary model. That model’s output may indicate where additional location specific information could fill in the blanks and produce a more site-specific model.
“We look at factors like the existence of a catastrophe plan, and the damage-ability of both the warehouse and the contents stored inside it,” Evans said. “This is where the expertise of our engineering team comes into play. They can get a much clearer idea of how certain structures and products will stand up to different forces.”
From there, engineers may develop a proprietary model that fits those specific details. The results may determine the exposure to be lower than originally believed — or buyers could potentially end up with higher pricing if the new model shows their risk to be greater. On the other hand, it may also alert the insured that higher limits may be required to better suit their true exposure to catastrophe losses.
Then when the worst does happen, insureds can rest assured that their carrier not only has the capacity to cover the loss, but the ability to both manage the volatility caused by the event and be in a position to offer reasonable terms when renewal rolls around.
For more information about Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance’s Marine services, visit https://bhspecialty.com/us-products/us-marine/.
Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance (www.bhspecialty.com) provides commercial property, casualty, healthcare professional liability, executive and professional lines, surety, travel, programs, medical stop loss and homeowners insurance. The actual and final terms of coverage for all product lines may vary. It underwrites on the paper of Berkshire Hathaway’s National Indemnity group of insurance companies, which hold financial strength ratings of A++ from AM Best and AA+ from Standard & Poor’s. Based in Boston, Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance has offices in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, San Ramon, Stevens Point, Auckland, Brisbane, Hong Kong, Melbourne, Singapore, Sydney and Toronto. For more information, contact [email protected].
The information contained herein is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any product or service. Any description set forth herein does not include all policy terms, conditions and exclusions. Please refer to the actual policy for complete details of coverage and exclusions.
This article was produced by the R&I Brand Studio, a unit of the advertising department of Risk & Insurance, in collaboration with Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance. The editorial staff of Risk & Insurance had no role in its preparation.