Workers’ Comp Forecast for 2014
1. Predictive Analytics.
Using predictive analytics effectively is the holy grail for any large company.
If you are a staffing company, oil field service operation, or retailer working on tight margins, getting this right can mean the difference between a profitable year or needing to increase liability accruals to account for ever-increasing long tail development.
There is a need to not only develop models for making predictions but to be able to provide actionable information that can be used to quantify the cost/benefit of taking very specific actions. If this could be accomplished, insurers and large self-insured companies could efficiently allocate resources to the areas likely to provide the most meaningful benefit.
2. TRIA is Non-Renewed.
The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) or Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA) is scheduled to expire on Dec. 31. Even now, as we are without a decision, insurers are being exposed to unlimited terrorism-related workers’ compensation liability (based on an annual policy period).
TRIA has been in place since 2002, when Congress acted to ensure that there was a market-based solution for insurance losses arising out of terrorist acts. It is generally agreed that the sponsors of that Act suggested that it could one day be phased out, and throughout its life, the protection has been diminished. However, what remains are clear limits that comfort investors and others in the financial community.
While the Act remains unrenewed, it is the witching hour for insurers. Consequently, insurers are in the process of preparing their position with respect to the issue.
3. Loss Costs in California Deteriorate.
When California Gov. Edmund “Jerry” Brown signed the workers’ compensation reform legislation into law Sept. 18, he said that it would reverse a four-year trend of rate increases. According to the data made available to us, the insurance market clearly disagrees.
As a matter of fact, California is the state producing the highest rate increases. Possibly, the reform medicine is slow acting and good news for employers in California is on its way.
The problem in California is not a new one. At one point, the state insurance fund was writing more than 50 percent of the workers’ compensation market. That
is the fund that was created to be the market of last resort as it is a government enterprise.
What is clear is it is becoming more common for insurers to place limitations on the amount of California workers’ compensation they will write. The concern is that in the current environment it is simply impossible to be profitable. It is a subtle movement to avoid a head-on clash with regulators.
4. IRS Focuses on Insurers and Captives.
The uniqueness and secret to success for the insurance industry is its favorable tax treatment. Money comes in, expected future losses are deducted and cash is available for investment and growth. The big difference is that expenses do not need to be paid but only accrued to reduce taxable income. That leaves more cash for investment.
There has been discussion about scrutiny of taxation for insurance companies and captives, the alternative risk tool of choice. Captives are on the short list for IRS auditors and if captives are not properly structured, there is more risk that those captives will now be challenged.
5. Trial Attorneys to Target Non-Subscription.
Approximately one-third of the employers in Texas are non-subscribers. Why? Because it makes sense. It saves on frictional costs, quickly provides benefits to employees who are injured and eliminates much of the soft fraud. It has been so successful that Oklahoma enacted its own reform effort, and Tennessee is considering legislative initiatives to enhance opportunities for non-subscription.
Even without a survey, we can safely assume that the majority of plaintiff’s attorneys are not big fans of non-subscription. Benefits for non-subscription are paid out via the Employee Retirement Income Security Act. There is no need for a legal process. There is no waiting period. There are clear definitions that are subject to arbitration.
In contrast, workers’ compensation commonly requires a legal process. Should an attorney become involved in a case where there is an injury within the course of employment, the attorney’s share, although not as large as in a tort case, is for all intents and purposes no-fault. For legal firms, workers’ compensation is high volume, low risk and considerable reward.
Consequently, we would think that should non-subscription become popular in Oklahoma and be signed into law in Tennessee that it may become a target of the bar.
6. Medicare Set Asides Become Increasingly Difficult.
MSAs, as they are called, are a complicated thing. In general, money is set aside to pay benefits for costs that otherwise would be funded by Medicare. It applies only to certain classes of individuals. With an aging workforce, it has become a big and expensive issue for insurance companies.
The problem is that claims can’t be settled quickly and efficiently as government sign-off is required. The impact has been a substantial increase in large claims severity. Further, it has helped to create longer tail development. What this means is that all companies will end up with longer periods of loss development in the form of greater IBNR (Incurred but not reported losses). It translates into more collateral, higher costs and higher liability accruals.
7. Bond Yields Plummet.
Nothing has had a greater impact on the insurance market than the change in bond yields post-2008. It required underwriters to make a profit underwriting. That changed the dynamics of the marketplace and the way the big insurers look at their business.
While it is hard to imagine, it is possible that rates of return on bonds could get much lower. Should there be a European meltdown, recession in Asia or the refusal of China and others to continue to fund our deficits, rates will fall. Should this happen there will be no escaping the need for rate adjustments across all lines of insurance as the dynamics of the current market will be left smoldering once again.
Fate of Two Comp Alternatives Lies With Courts
The push to reform state workers’ compensation systems to allow employers to opt out is by no means secure in Oklahoma, the first state to enact such reform. Similar efforts face new challenges in Tennessee, the second state to seek opt-out legislation.
Eight of nine current Oklahoma Supreme Court justices received their appointments from Democratic governors. In April the justices will hear a constitutional challenge to the law allowing employers to leave the Sooner workers’ comp system by implementing an alternative benefits plan.
By contrast, a conservative legislature and Republican governor friendly toward business interests adopted the opt-out legislation in 2013, bringing the opt-out alternative into law beginning in early 2014.
Claimants presenting the constitutional challenge before Oklahoma’s Supreme Court argue the law is unconstitutional because it denies injured workers due process and creates two sets of workers with disparate rights.
The court’s justices may be sympathetic to such an argument.
Past Oklahoma Supreme Court rulings make it apparent the body leans more liberal in judgment than the state’s “very, very conservative legislature,” said Trey Gillespie, senior workers’ comp director at the Property Casualty Insurers Assn. of America.
“I think everybody in Oklahoma will agree the Oklahoma Supreme Court is significantly more liberal in their view of the construction of laws and the application of laws than the Oklahoma Senate and House of Representatives,” Gillespie said. “There have been instances…where it appears the Oklahoma Supreme Court seems to get a lot of joy out of declaring certain acts of the Oklahoma legislature unconstitutional.”
Bill Minick, president of consulting firm PartnerSource and a chief proponent of efforts to allow opting out of state workers’ comp systems, called the Oklahoma Supreme Court’s makeup “a legitimate consideration.”
But Minick argues that the lawsuit’s goal of preventing employer’s from opting out of Oklahoma’s workers’ comp system will fail in the long run. It “is clear that the Oklahoma legislature is committed to do anything necessary to preserve” the law adopted as the Employee Injury Benefit Act, he said.
Gillespie said opt-out backers are already urging Oklahoma legislation that would adjust the law to mitigate the impact should the lawsuit plaintiffs prevail.
Gillespie and Minick will both speak at the National Workers’ Compensation and Disability Conference & Expo to be held November 11-13 in Las Vegas. They will present two divergent viewpoints on opt out.
Meanwhile, on March 25, Tennessee legislators in the House Consumer and Human Relations Subcommittee deferred taking action on opt-out legislation, which could delay further consideration of its passage until next year.
Two days prior, a Tennessee Advisory Council on Workers’ Compensation voted 6-0 against recommending the legislation that would allow employers to leave the state’s workers’ comp system and set up alternative plans.
The advisory council provides research and recommendations to Tennessee’s General Assembly and to state agencies. Mr. Gillespie testified before the council against the opt-out legislation, embedded in Senate Bill 0721 and House Bill 0997.
Tennessee is the first state where proponents for laws allowing employers to opt out of state workers’ comp systems are seeking favorable legislation after winning the right to do so in Oklahoma.
Conditions for Oklahoma’s adoption of an opt-out alternative were ripe at the time of that legislation’s signing into law by Republican Gov. Mary Fallin. Oklahoma employers were frustrated with a dysfunctional workers’ compensation system while neighboring Texas provided an example of advantages employers could gain by opting out.
Texas has allowed employers to opt-out of its workers’ comp system since that system was first created.
The case Oklahoma’s Supreme Court is scheduled to hear on April 14, is Judy Pilkington and Kim Lee V. State of Oklahoma.
Pilkington was injured in 2014, while working for retailer Dillard’s Inc. Lee was also injured in 2014, while an employee of Swift Transportation Co. of Arizona, according to their legal filing.
They claim Oklahoma’s opt-out law strips them of the right to have their workers’ comp cases heard by an unbiased body.
“There is no due process protection in allowing an Oklahoma employer to OPT OUT of the statutory workers’ compensation system, set up its own benefit plan, make all the decisions regarding benefits, determine who and how a plan can be reviewed, and have total control of the development of the record for appeal,” the plaintiffs’ Supreme Court filing states. “Nowhere along the way is there an agency or court or unbiased tribunal to look at the merits of an injured worker’s case. OPT OUT employers are allowed to replace a judge with a committee chosen by the employer.”
They also argue that the Oklahoma Injury Benefit Act creates disparate rights for accessing benefits. For example, injured employees working for employers that do not opt out generally have one year to file a claim while an employer that opts out may allow only a 24-hour statute of limitation, they claim.
Oklahoma’s constitution prohibits separate treatment of members of the same class of people, said Bob Burke, an attorney representing the plaintiffs.
Asked whether the Supreme Court justices about to hear his case are likely to be influenced by the fact that 8 of them were appointed by Democratic governors, Burke said that “the court has a tradition of maintaining access to justice for injured workers and anyone harmed.”
What Is Insurance Innovation?
Truly innovative insurance solutions are delivered in real time, as the needs of businesses change and the nature of risk evolves.
Lexington Insurance exemplifies this approach to innovation. Creative products driven by speed to market are at the core of the insurer’s culture, reputation and strategic direction, according to Matthew Power, executive vice president and head of strategic development at Lexington, an AIG Company and the leading U.S.-based surplus lines insurer.
“The excess and surplus lines sector is in a growth mode due, in no small part, to the speed at which our insureds’ underlying business models are changing,” Power said. “Tomorrow’s winning companies are those being built upon true breakthrough innovation, with a strong focus on agility and speed to market.”
To boost its innovation potential, for example, Lexington has launched a new crowdsourcing strategy. The company’s “Innovation Boot Camps” bring people together from the U.S., Canada, Bermuda and London in a series of engagements focused on identifying potential waves of change and market needs on the coverage horizon.
“Employees work in teams to determine how insurance can play a vital role in increasing the success odds of new markets and customers,” Power said. “That means anticipating needs and quickly delivering programs to meet them.”
An example: Working in tandem with the AIG Science team – another collaboration focused on innovation – Lexington is looking to offer an advanced high-tech seating system in the truck cabs of some of its long-haul trucking customers. The goal is to reduce driver injury and fatigue-based accidents.
“Our professionals serving the healthcare market average more than twenty years of industry experience. That includes attorneys and clinicians combining in a defense-oriented claims approach and collaborating with insureds in this fast-moving market segment. At Lexington, our relentless focus on innovation enables us to take on the risk so our clients can take on the opportunities.”
— Matthew Power, Executive Vice President and Head of Regional Development, Lexington Insurance Company
Power explained that exciting growth areas such as robotics, nanotechnology and driverless cars, among others, require highly customized commercial insurance solutions that often can be delivered only by excess and surplus lines underwriters.
“Being non-admitted, our freedom of rate and form allows us to be nimble, and that’s very important to our clients,” he said. “We have an established track record of reacting quickly to trends and market needs.”
Lexington is a leading provider of personal lines coverage for the excess and surplus lines industry and, as Power explains, the company’s suite of product offerings has continued to evolve in the wake of changing customer needs. “Our personal lines team has developed a robust product offering that considers issues like sustainable building, energy efficiency, and cyber liability.”
Most recently the company launched Evacuation Response, a specialty coverage designed to reimburse Lexington personal lines customers for costs associated with government mandated evacuations. “These evacuation scenarios have becoming increasingly commonplace in the wake of recent extreme weather events, and this coverage protects insured families against the associated costs of transportation and temporary housing.
The company also has followed the emerging cap and trade legislation in California, which has created an active carbon trading market throughout the state. “Our new Carbon ODS product provides real property protection for sequestered ozone depleting substances, while our CarbonCover Design Confirm product insures those engineering firms actively verifying and valuing active trades.” Lexington has also begun to insure new Carbon Registries as they are established in markets across the country.
Lexington has also developed a number of new product offerings within the Healthcare space. The Affordable Care Act has brought an increased focus on the continuum of care and clinical patient safety. In response, Lexington has created special programs for a wide range of entities, as the fast-changing healthcare industry includes a range of specialized services, including home healthcare, imaging centers (X-ray, MRI, PET–CT scans), EMT/ambulances, medical laboratories, outpatient primary care/urgent care centers, ambulatory surgery centers and Medical rehabilitation facilities.
“The excess and surplus lines sector is in growth mode due, in no small part, to the speed at which our insureds’ underlying business models are changing,” Power said.
Apart from its coverage flexibility, Lexington offers this segment monthly webcasts, bi-monthly conference calls and newsletters on key risk issues and educational topics. It also provides on-site risk consultation (for qualifying accounts), access to RiskTool, Lexington’s web-based healthcare risk management and patient safety resource, and a technical staff consisting of more than 60 members dedicated solely to healthcare-related claims.
“Our professionals serving the healthcare market average more than twenty years of industry experience,” Power said. “That includes attorneys and clinicians combining in a defense-oriented claims approach and collaborating with insureds in this fast-moving market segment.”
This article was produced by the R&I Brand Studio, a unit of the advertising department of Risk & Insurance, in collaboration with Lexington Insurance. The editorial staff of Risk & Insurance had no role in its preparation.